Data hints at how many fun cars automakers think they'll sell

"DCCARGEEK" (dccargeek)
12/10/2013 at 17:16 • Filed to: CAFE, Projections

The image above is a screen shot from a document depicting GM's projected sales volumes by make and power train for MY 2012. These reports are submitted to NHTSA for the purposes of CAFE calculations.

This is one of the only places you'll see automakers break down models by power train (read: performance trim), something not reported in monthly sales releases. Again, these are projections and not sales, but they do give you some idea of volume expectation.

For example, for 2012 GM anticipated selling a whopping 122 CTS-V Wagons with a manual transmission (denoted above as M6/T ).

Looking over Chrysler's report it appears for SRT-variants of Charger and 300 were projected at 3% of those two models total volume, while the SRT Challenger was expected to make up 20% of the retro coupes total volume.

Many of the other automaker's projections are available !!!error: Indecipherable SUB-paragraph formatting!!! .

This is just another example of the fun and interesting (and random) data on automakers you can get compliments of Uncle Sam's sometimes burdensome, rarely transparent regulatory process.

DISCUSSION (13)

thereisnospork > DCCARGEEK
12/10/2013 at 17:22

Considering that the performance versions burn more gas, I wonder if they sandbag their projections to make themselves look more efficient?

FJ80WaitinForaLSV8 > DCCARGEEK
12/10/2013 at 17:32

Where does Wards get its data for % engine installations by model? The OEMs must release some of this data if not monthly at least yearly.

HammerheadFistpunch > DCCARGEEK
12/10/2013 at 17:33

Nice sleuthing. It is interesting to see these projections, because there are endless talked about how something will or wont sell with certain options, and here is the proof. I was talking with someone on the FP today that was saying no more than 25% of consumers would buy a ridgeline with low range, and I thought to myself "hey, 25% is probably pretty good". I talked to a Jeep engineer recently about numbers like this. Specifically, what % of the new cherokee will be trailhawk; about 20%. I guess what I am trying to get at is that lots of people will say a manufacture would never build X car or Y feature because the take rate is low, but the take rate is always relatively low. Yes the math on paper doesn't always make sense, its about an image and marketing. An ideal. Anyway, i ramble.

DCCARGEEK > FJ80WaitinForaLSV8
12/10/2013 at 17:36

I think, and I can check with them, Wards gets lots of data from OEMs and DMVs then sells it back to automakers and car buying sites (marketing).

FJ80WaitinForaLSV8 > DCCARGEEK
12/10/2013 at 17:46

Polk is the big DMV data user. Most of their data is based on vehicle registrations. Its very useful sometimes. Other times the OEM data from Wards is more useful.

DCCARGEEK > HammerheadFistpunch
12/10/2013 at 17:47

This is a mid-model report required by 49 CFR 537 ( http://www.law.cornell.edu/cfr/text/49/53… ).

Per the law automakers are required to produce two reports each year, pre model and mid model. This batch is all mid model so it would account for any adjustments in volume along with model changes that could impact CAFE numbers.

Again, I'm not one of those professional journalists, nor do I have a press release to quote from, so I could have no clue what the hell I'm talking about.

Also curious why all of these documents say they are confidential. I assume that is just for the year in which they are submitted.

DCCARGEEK > FJ80WaitinForaLSV8
12/10/2013 at 17:48

Ah that's right. I've combined them in my head, Wards and Polk. Again, I'm new to this automotive world.

HammerheadFistpunch > DCCARGEEK
12/10/2013 at 17:56

because government.

DCCARGEEK > thereisnospork
12/11/2013 at 11:16

Good point. Hadn't thought about that. Not real sure how NHTSA keeps automakers in line when it comes to projections.

ParkerArt > DCCARGEEK
12/11/2013 at 11:44

So, the V6 automatic Mustangs outnumber the manual V6 Mustangs by 4:1? Somehow, that isn't as high as I thought it would be... Also, about the same ration for the V8s.

DCCARGEEK > ParkerArt
12/11/2013 at 12:17

I haven't had a chance to look over the Ford numbers (wife just had a new baby and I'm entertaining my 2 year-old). Also, these are projections, but it is interesting to think that Ford thought they'd sell that many manual V6s.

DCCARGEEK > DCCARGEEK
12/13/2013 at 09:25

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DCCARGEEK > DCCARGEEK
12/13/2013 at 09:26

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